Friedrich Merz, a conservative rival of Angela Merkel, is on track to become the next chancellor, though the far-right AfD is expected to make historic gains.

In a night that reshaped Germany’s political landscape, the 2025 federal elections delivered a mix of dramatic victories and surprising setbacks. Drawing on detailed analyses of the grounds , we examine which parties emerged as the biggest winners and losers in this transformative electoral contest.

For the first time since the fall of the Third Reich 80 years ago, there is a real possibility that a party with direct ideological continuity with the Nazis will enter government.